2021 PGA Championship odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from same model that called six golf majors
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated the PGA Championship 2021 10,000 times
By CBS Sports Staff
Kiawah Island's Ocean Course is one of the toughest PGA Tour venues to tame, and golfers like Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa will lean on their precision iron play when the 2021 PGA Championship tees off Thursday. Rahm and Morikawa currently rank fourth or better on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation and will try to continue that trend and set up makeable birdie putts. They're two of the 2021 PGA Championship contenders to watch as they battle a loaded 2021 PGA Championship field that also features big hitters like Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy, all of whom rank in the top 10 in driving distance.

William Hill Sportsbook lists McIlroy, a four-time major champion, as the favorite at 11-1, with Rahm (14-1), Justin Thomas (14-1) and Jordan Spieth (16-1) next in line in the 2021 PGA Championship odds. Should you back the big hitters or bank on the precision players at the PGA Championship 2021? Before locking in your 2021 PGA Championship picks, be sure to see the 2021 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour in June. In fact, it's up over $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Jon Rahm's (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners' (+550) top-10 showing. All told, McClure's best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger's win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland's (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he's made in the past few months.

After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets in that tournament. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Garcia winning outright. He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.

This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 PGA Championship leaderboard.
The model's top 2021 PGA Championship predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2021: Bryson DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, struggles and barely cracks the top 10. The 27-year-old has revolutionized the game of golf, using his swing speed to create distance off the tee that we've never seen before.

DeChambeau enters the second major of the year ranked first in driving distance (322.0), strokes gained tee-to-green (1.788) and strokes gained off-the-tee (1.184). The eight-time PGA Tour champion also ranks in the top 10 in a number of important statistical categories, including birdie average (4.45), scoring average (69.882) and going for the green percentage (82.58).

However, DeChambeau enters the PGA Championship 2021 ranked 172nd in driving accuracy percentage, hitting just 55.24 percent of fairways off the tee. His inability to hit the fairway off the tee has caused DeChambeau to struggle in his most recent outings. In fact, DeChambeau has finished 42nd or worse in three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the PGA Championship 2021 field.

Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 30-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 24-year-old won the 2020 PGA Championship from TPC Harding Park in San Francisco, which came just one year after he graduated across the bay at UC Berkeley. That win vaulted him from 12th in Official World Golf Ranking to fifth, and he's stayed among the top seven since then.

A major part of Morikawa's success has been his work when approaching the green. He's gained 1.311 strokes in that department, which ranks first on tour, and owns a birdie average of 4.64 per round, ranking third. He also ranks second in greens in regulation percentage (72.85) and sixth in driving accuracy percentage (70.45), both of which are paramount given the windy conditions of the Ocean Course. Morikawa's game is well-suited for the conditions he's likely to face, thus giving him plenty of value for your 2021 PGA Championship bets, according to the model.
How to make 2021 PGA Championship picks

The model is targeting four other golfers with PGA Championship odds 2021 higher than 20-1 to make a strong run at the Wanamaker Trophy, including an epic underdog. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the 2021 PGA Championship? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed six golf majors and is up over $10,000 since the restart.

Also see below for more agency tips:
PGA Golf Bets
Betfair Betting Agency